Hunting the Real Bitcoin Network Hashrate

Casa's CTO Jameson Lopp shared his exploration of hashrate estimate algorithms with the goal of finding an improved way of determining a more accurate global hashrate estimate.

Hunting the Real Bitcoin Network Hashrate
  • "My primary goal with this research is just to get us all on the same page. I often see folks making claims about changes to the hashrate as if they are news-worthy, but without mentioning how they are estimating the hashrate."
  • "It's possible that large scale miners could be interested in an improved hashrate estimate for their own planning purposes, but I'm generally just seeking to reduce confusion with regard to this topic."
  • "By blending together many hashrate estimates and weighting them based upon recent estimates with a variety of trailing data time frames we were fairly easily able to improve upon the 1100 block estimate and decrease the average error rate by 13% and lower the standard deviation by 14%."

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